Thursday, November 12, 2009

Some statistical predictions

Last night there was absolutely nothing to do at work, so bored as I was I started calculating the end results of this Red Wing season based on what has come before.
The results have to be taken with a grain of salt of course, but they tell a few interesting stories about how the Wings have done so far this season. Last night's Columbus game (which I haven't seen yet, but are going to see later today) is not in the calculations. (Many of the numbers are rounded off)

First, let's take a look of what it has taken to get to the playoffs the last four years:

Getting the 8th spot and the last playoff spot in the west:
08/09: Anaheim Ducks 91 pts, 42-31-7
07/08: Nashville Predators 91 pts, 41-32-9
06/07: Calgary Flames 96 pts, 43-29-10
05/06: Edmonton Oilers 95 pts, 41-28-13

Also, let's look at the 9th place, the first spot outside of the playoffs:
08/09: Minnesota Wild 89 pts, 40-33-9
07/08: Edmonton Oilers 88 pts, 41-35-6
06/07: Colorado Avalanche 95 pts, 44-31-7
05/06: Vancouver Canucks 92 pts, 42-33-8

So based on my calculations the average 8th spot after the lockout has had a record of 94 pts and 42-30-10 and the average 9th spot has had a record of 91 pts and 42-33-7.

That should give you an idea of what it takes to get to the playoffs.

So, these are the wings results so far, coded with home/away (H= home, A=away), division/conference status (Div=division, Con=conference, OCo=other conference), opponent and result (W,L,T) (when reading the following analysises, please remember that the Wings two games against the Blues were played on neutral ground in Stockholm, Sweden):
H - Div - STL - L
A - Div - STL - L
H - Div - CHI - W
H - OCo - WAS - W
A - OCo - BUF - L
H - Con - LAK - W
H - Con - COL - T
A - Con - PHX - T
A - Con - COL - L
A - Con - VAN - W
A - Con - EDM - T
A - Con - CGY - W
H - OCo - BOS - W
H - Con - SJS - W
A - OCo - TML - L

Through this the Wings have a record of 15 games played (gms), 17 pts, 7-5-3.
If we adjust this for 82 games we get 93 pts and 38-27-17. This is not nearly enough wins, but thanks to ties, enough points to maybe make the playoffs. I guess the most interesting thing about this is that the Wings have had an unusual number of ties this year (something that is valid for the whole league too and if it keeps up one might need a record high total to make the playoffs).

Let's now look at the home and away results this year:
Home: 7 gms, 11 pts, 5-1-1. A good home record
Away: 8 gms, 6 pts, 2-4-2. It's this one that needs improvement.
Adjusted for 82 gms (41 home and 41 away):
Home: 29-6-6, 64 pts
Away: 10-21-20, 30 pts
This leads to a total of 39-27-16 and 94 pts, a little better than the previous average.

I'll leave the next stats without comment as they are more interesting than really useful.

Sorting for division and conference (24 games against division rivals, 40 against conference rivals and 18 against other conference teams).

Stats up until now:
Div: 1-2-0, 3 gms, 2 pts
Con: 4-1-3, 8 gms, 11 pts
OCo: 2-2-0, 4 gms, 4 pts

In 82 games that is:
Div: 8-16-0, 24 gms, 16 pts
Con: 20-5-15, 50 gms, 55 pts
OCo: 9-9-0, 18 gms, 18 pts
Season total: 37-30-15, 82 gms, 89 pts

Sorting for both division status and home/away:
So far:
Div H: 1-1-0, 2 gms, 2 pts
Div A: 0-1-0, 1 gm, 0 pts
Con H: 2-0-1, 3 gms, 5 pts
Con A: 2-1-2, 5 gms, 6 pts
OCo H: 2-0-0, 2 gms, 4 pts
OCo A: 0-2-0, 2 gms, 0 pts

In 82 games:
Div H: 6-6-0, 12 gms, 12 pts
Div A: 0-12-0, 12 gms, 0 pts
Con H: 13-0-7, 20 gms, 33 pts
Con A: 8-4-8, 20 gms, 24 pts
OCo H: 9-0-0, 9 gms, 18 pts
OCo A: 0-9-0, 9 gms, 0 pts
Total: 36-31-15, 82 gms, 87 pts

So, boring pointless stats, but fun to play around with...

One last stat that I found interesting, but doesn't mean much. Up until now the Wings have had the following record against teams that made and did not make the playoffs last year:
Playoff teams: 6-2-0, 8 gms, 12 pts
Non-playoff teams: 1-3-3, 7 gms, 5 pts

This in itself is pretty interesting, the Wings have done better against the teams that did well last year than against the ones that struggled. Weird huh? Might have something to do with the league being weird overall this year with good teams from last year struggling and weaker ones being good.

3 of the Wings 4 division rivals are playoff (POT) teams from last year, that means 18 games against POT and 6 against Non-POT.
5 of the Wings 10 conference rivals are playoff teams from last year, that means 20 games against POT and 20 against Non-POT.
8 of the Wings 15 other conference opponents are playoff teams from last year, I don't know which teams we're meeting twice, but purely mathematically that should mean 10 games against POT and 8 against Non-POT.
In total this is 48 games against POT and 34 against Non-POT.

This would in 82 games give the Wings a record of (this stat is pretty useless, but at least nice):
POT: 36-12-0, 72 pts
Non-POT: 5-15-14, 24 pts
Total: 41-27-14, 96 pts

That's it. Hopefully I'll find time to review the Jackets game later tonight.

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